Sunday, 16 February 2014

Could Saints FA Cup exit to Sunderland have longer term repercussions?

Perhaps the FA Cup just isn’t that important anymore? Maybe supporters brought up in the Premier League era do not give the oldest cup competition in the world the same kudos that it was once afforded? Perhaps in this day and age, when fourth place is king and relegation a fate worse than death, they are right. However Southampton have no chance of making fourth place this season, indeed it is difficult to put a case for them finishing higher than the 8th place they currently inhabit, or lower than the 9th spot that has been theirs for the last couple of months. They are, along with Newcastle, one of only two teams below Manchester United with no chance of being sucked into the scramble to avoid the drop. So why did they not move heaven and earth to win yesterdays fifth round FA Cup tie at the Stadium of Light? Gus Poyet, whose team already have a League Cup Final to look forward to and made 10 changes to yesterdays side, half admitted before the game that defeat might be a preferable option.


Football supporters are not naive, staying in the Premier League is of the utmost importance, although it would be interesting to know how Wigan supporters feel about this. Did that day out at Wembley last May make up for relegation? Was one gloriously unforgettable afternoon more satisfying than another season of fighting the drop and getting beaten week in week out? Regardless of the answer, that question applies to Sunderland this year and not Southampton. Saints have a fantastic, energetic and young team with a bright future, indeed everywhere one looked or listened over the past few days, observers  were bigging up their chances in the cup. The top four were drawn together, suddenly there could be an easy path through to the semis, and then who knows what might happen? If only there was an example of an unfancied club winning the FA Cup against the odds in the last year or so.


However, instead of going 100% for Sunderland yesterday, Mauricio Pochettino chose to make six changes from the team that beat Hull City in the week. Jay Rodriguez, currently one of the hottest strikers away from home in the Premier League was dropped. Out too was Jose Fonte, the only fit and reliable centre back at the club, to be replaced by Jos Hooiveld. Jos may be a good guy and once a great player for Saints in the lower divisions, but much like J-Rod’s stand in, Guly do Prado, he is simply no longer up to the task. You can perhaps make a case for Morgan Schneiderlin being moved aside for Victor Wanyama, but does a 24 year old professional footballer really need a rest? In any case, Southampton have a full week to recover after this match before an away trip to West Ham, and I know which game most supporters would rather have lost.


So why did it happen? Who is to blame? Are foreign coaches simply not in tune to the importance of the FA Cup, to the desire of fans to have a day out at Wembley? Personally the 2010 Johnstone’s Paint Trophy final at Wembley will always remain one of my greatest days as a football supporter. Red and white filled half of the stadium that day and the goosebumps rise on my arms now just thinking about it. Perhaps the ominous threat of the Europa League caused Pochettino to sabotage his teams chances? After all who wants European football these days, apart from a majority of the supporters of course. Yes, being in the continent’s much maligned second club competition brings with it the danger of reduced league form, but surely that can be managed correctly? Southampton have the best academy in the country, a team comprised of younger players, with one or two seniors for guidance, could have taken the field in that competition. What fantastic preparation that would be for the youngsters at a club proclaiming to have genuine Champions League ambition?


Most depressing is the thought that if Saints are not prepared to have a proper crack at winning a trophy this season, when will they? If relegation were even a distant proposition I would understand the weakened team selection, had they been in touching distance of fourth place then yes, there is justification to make that the priority. But neither of those are the case, instead a golden opportunity for silverware, or at least a day out at Wembley has been squandered, and at what cost? Would Luke Shaw, James Ward-Prowse and Adam Lallana be more inclined to stay at the club if it could aid their development with European football? Now any offer these players receive in the summer will be a little harder to turn down, after all Southampton are a club that can’t even be bothered to try and win the FA Cup. And who wants to play for, or support, a club that is not interested in going for glory when that rare opportunity presents itself?

follow me on twitter @marcusbraeburn






Friday, 17 January 2014

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 22

I was going to write a witty and cutting piece that criticised the media response to Nicola Cortese leaving Southampton but I am too drunk. Instead Manchester City will stuff Cardiff and Andy Carroll will score against his old club. Night.




Split your tenner thusly, all bets placed with our good friends Bet Victor.

£2 at 13/2 on Andy Carroll to score the last goal at for West Ham v Newcastle. (returns £15)

Manchester City v Cardiff City
£2.48 on 2-0 at 13/2 (returns £18.60)
£2.48 on 3-0 at 13/2 (returns £18.60)
£1.90 on 4-0 at 9/1 (returns £19.00)
£1.14 on 5-0 at 16/1 (returns £19.38)


Week 21 starting balance: £73.22
Profit/Loss: - £10.00
Week 22 starting balance: £63.22

Follow me on twitter @marcusbraeburn

Saturday, 11 January 2014

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 21

It is a long time since Braeburn's Tenner signed off for Christmas with it's second losing week in a row. None of the teams in the treble obliged with Saints, Reading and Brighton all failing to pick up the three points. However, it could all have been so very different had Cardiff City not picked up a second half consolation at Anfield. Let's hope for better luck this week.

Bet 1 - The Trixie

This week I'm going for a risky looking trixie to kick things off. We'll back Cardiff to draw with West Ham, Sunderland to win at Fulham and Millwall to pick up three points in Ian Holloway's first game in charge away at Huddersfield. The treble is worth 58/1 so we'll be very happy if just two of these risky selections come in.

Bet 2 - Correct Score Spread

Spurs may have won at Man United last time out in the league but they looked pretty toothless against Arsenal in the cup last weekend and so I think it could be a tough afternoon against Crystal Palace at White Hart Lane. Tony Pulis will shut the game down hoping to escape with a point so we'll use £6 to cover 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-1. See how to split the money below


£1 trixie (£4 total) with bet365 on Cardiff and West Ham to draw at 5/2, Sunderland to beat Fulham at 14/5 and Millwall to beat Huddersfield at 7/2. (returns £106).

Spurs v Crystal Palace with betVictor
£2.30 on 1-0 @ 6/1 (returns £16.10)
£1.25 on 0-0 @ 12/1 (returns £16.25)
£1.70 on 1-1 @ 17/2 (returns £16.15)
£0.75 on 0-1 @ 19/1 (returns £15.00)


Week 17 starting balance: £83.22
Profit/Loss: - £10.00
Week 21 starting balance: £73.22

Follow me on twitter @marcusbraeburn

Friday, 20 December 2013

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 17

A bad week for Braeburn's Tenner last time out with West Ham and Adam Lallana combining to lose me both bets. However, it would have been interesting to see how different the Newcastle v Saints game might have been if Lallana had started the match, particularly considering his impact coming off the bench at half-time. Still I am in healthy profit for the season and I have a snuggly warm feeling about this weeks selections....

Bet 1 - The correct score spread

With the pressure mounting on Alchie McAle the last thing the Cardiff City Red/BlueBirds need is a trip to Anfield where Luis Suarez is scoring (literally) for fun. Liverpool have quietly become the Premier Leagues second highest scorers this season and will go top of the table with a victory on Saturday lunchtime. Brendan Rogers side have made great progress in the last 18 months and I can see nothing but a comfortable home win here. I'm lumping £8 of this weeks tenner on this match and going for 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 (see below for the spread).

Bet 2 - The treble


This may look like a bet made with the heart but there are solid reasons behind each pick and at just over 11/1 it is well worth a nibble. Saints are my team but with 'crisis club' Spurs the visitors they look a great shout for a first win since the beginning of November. It is five matches since that last maximum yet they have impressed in all those games, particularly when drawing one each with Manchester City in the last home fixture. Spurs meanwhile will have been hoping for a positive reaction after the harsh sacking of AVB, unfortunately after the home loss against West Ham in the week things don't get any easier here. 

Down in the championship Reading, managed by Super Nigel 'once a Saint always a Saint' Adkins, can put one over Wigan at the Madejski Stadium. Adkins has a decent team and the Royals look overpriced to beat a Latics side that have struggled away from home during Uwe Rosler's short stint in charge.

Meanwhile Brighton, my home for much of the last 15 years, look a good shout to get three points at home to Huddersfield. The Seagulls struggled in the early days of Oscar Garcia's reign but now look to be closing in ominously on the top six with only one defeat in the last nine games

Bet 1
Liverpool to beat Cardiff City (all with BetVictor):
£2.86 on 2-0 at 6/1 (returns £20.02)
£2.56 on 3-0 at 7/1 (returns £20.48)
£1.67 on 4-0 at 11/1 (returns £20.04)
£0.91 on 5-0 at 21/1 (returns £20.02)

Bet 2
£2 on Saints, Brighton and Reading all to win with BetVictor returns (£24.21)


Week 16 starting balance: £93.22
Profit/Loss: - £10.00
Week 17 starting balance: £83.22

And follow me on Twitter: @marcusbraeburn

Friday, 13 December 2013

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 16


Braeburn's Tenner has been on holiday for a couple of weeks since the lovely 35 quid profit we raked in from Man City thrashing Swansea 3-0. Since my last post England have lost the Ashes, Saints tentative title tilt has all but disintegrated and I have broken my hand. Still Christmas will be over soon and that means I be nearer to having this bastard cast removed. Two bets this week.

Bet 1 - The Treble
£5 on West Ham, Derby and QPR all to win at just over 9/1 with bet365.

Bet 2 - The Double
£5 on Luiz Suarez and Adam Lallana both to score at anytime this weekend at 10/1 with Betfred.

Fingers crossed.


Week 13 starting balance: £58.19
Profit/Loss: + £35.03
Week 16 starting balance: £93.22

And follow me on Twitter: @marcusbraeburn

Saturday, 30 November 2013

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 13

No joy for Braeburn's Tenner last week and this week I have done it in a hurry due to utter laziness...

Split your tenner thusly.

Man City to beat Swansea by the following scores, all with Bet Victor.

£4.74 on 3-0 at 17/2 (returns £45.03)
£2.81 on 4-0 at 15/1 (returns £44.96)
£1.45 on 5-0 at 30/1 (returns £44.95)
£1.00 on 6-0 at 90/1 (returns £91.00)


Week 12 starting balance: £68.19
Profit/Loss: - £10.00
Week 13 starting balance: £58.19

And follow me on Twitter: @marcusbraeburn

Saturday, 23 November 2013

Braeburn's Tenner - Week 12

A mega stonking week for Braeburn's Tenner last time out with the anytime goalscorer treble rolling in at over 8/1.

Bet 1 - The Single
This week I am putting my money where my mouth is and sticking half my tenner on Saints to win at Arsenal, albeit with the slight safety net of going in on the draw no bet market. It's a best price 16/5 with Bet Victor.

Bet 2 - The correct score spread
Stoke v Sunderland is guaranteed to be last on MOTD so we'll spread our second fiver across 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1. Yawnitty yawn.

£5 on Saints to beat Arsenal (draw no bet) market at 16/5 with Bet Victor. (returns £21)
£2.10 on Stoke to beat Sunderland 1-0 at 11/2 with Bet Victor. (returns £13.65)
£1.55 on Stoke to draw 0-0 with Sunderland at 8/1 with Bet Victor. (returns £13.95)
£1.35 on Sunderland to beat Stoke 1-0 at 9/1 with Bet Victor. (returns £13.50)



Week 11 starting balance: £30.73
Profit/Loss: + £37.46
Week 12 starting balance: £68.19

And follow me on Twitter: @marcusbraeburn